Tēna koe Wiremu,
Again I see a leaflet from you in my letterbox, this time your pitch as an independent candidate in the 2026 general election. So again, I thought I'd respond.
I pretty much agree with everything on your list of priorities, with the notable exception of "more you, less Keynes". Because increasing public spending is the only way to achieve every else we both want for this country. Balanced out by making sure the wealthy - and especially multinational corporations - pay the same proportion of their income as wage and salary workers. Not by running up government deficits - unless the money supply needs expanding to keep pace with a growing economy - nor by increasing public debt. Although to be clear, NZ public debt is low by OECD standards, and borrowing to pay for infrastructure that will last for generations to come is a sensible way to get everyone who will benefit from it to contribute towards the costs during their working lives.
Turning to the back of your leaflet ...
I'm not sure what you mean by "maximum wages for government". I agree that the gap between the lowest paid and highest paid people in public service has got too big, as it has in most companies. But I don't know how much could realistically be shaved from the top pay brackets for any purpose other than paying public servants. Given that at a time of record unemployment, we really ought to be increasing the number of people employed to do public service work.
Paying a worker for a 40 hour week, at the Living Wage (rounded up to $30), is $1200 a week. We already pay around half of that to most unemployed people in the form of a benefit. So throwing people out of most public service jobs only saves about half of what we pay them. The same logic works in reverse; creating a job for a person on a benefit, doing public service work fulltime at Living Wage, only costs the public purse an extra $600 or so a week. That's a bargain! It's also an investment in growing the real economy, but we'll get to that.
You mention lowering inflation targets from 2% to 0%. You might be surprised to learn that's not actually a change to the status quo. Neoliberal monetary policy always aims for 0% inflation, with 2% as a fallback position. The reason this continues to stall our economy, instead of revitalising it, is that inflation levels are entirely the wrong target. Focusing on limiting the effect, rather than addressing the cause.
Ordinary people's experience of 'high inflation' - escalating consumer prices - is mainly caused by high unemployment. Which starves small businesses of revenue (broke people can't buy as much stuff), reducing their spending at their suppliers. With businesses across the economy experiencing lower incomes while expenses remain steady, they're forced to raise prices just to keep their margins the same. These price rises then raise the costs of doing business - especially for smaller ones - compounding the problem, and driving many to the wall. Further increasing unemployment, rinse, repeat. If the Reserve Bank was tasked with reducing unemployment, rather than obsessing over inflation measures, it might actually be effective in keeping price inflation in check.
The other thing that drives inflation is excessive profiteering by monopolists (eg the supermarket duopoly), especially when the owners of the companies with monopoly control can take their excessive profits out of the country. Strengthening the Commerce Commission to break up monopolies - whether owned by offshore or onshore interests - is one important way to reduce this drag on the economy. Instead of most of our disposable income disappearing straight into corporate coffers the first time it's spent, more of it would be freed up to cycle through a number of local businesses, enabling more transactions. Growing the real economy by getting us the goods and services we need, rather than growing only a mostly-illusory FIRE+IP economy (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Intellectual Property).
Another part of the solution is carefully targeted taxes on capital. For example, as mentioned further down in your leaflet, closing the loopholes that allow highly profitable companies like Apple to pay no tax on the revenue they earn here. Especially when those taxes balance out the aforementioned public spending. Which feeds more money back into the main street economy via employing more public servants, raising benefits to livable levels (esp. disability benefits), and properly funding public services so they're not sapping money out of the economy in invisible and disproportionate taxes (like "user pays" fees).
Your comments on council spending suggest a number of misunderstandings about the responsibilities of local government and the causes of their financial strife. For a start, many of the "nice to haves" you refer to can be shown to reduce the need for greater public spending in other areas. Even if these were as disposable as they're often perceived, they are not a large proportion of councils' rising costs. There are two main drivers of council costs, which I'll briefly describe.
Firstly, successive governments have devolved many central government functions to their local counterparts. As a way of moving those costs out of their own budgets, without having to accept the political costs of eliminating or commercialising popular public goods. Where councils try in good faith to fulfill these delegated responsibilities, it's increased their costs, usually without corresponding increases in their funding.
Secondly, successive councils have responded to pressure to keep rates unsustainably low by deferring maintenance on key infrastructure - especially for water supply and drainage - and now the bill comes due. The 3 Waters reforms were an attempt to move at least some of these costs off councils' balance sheets, and use central government's cheaper access to credit to reduce the overall cost of these infrastructure upgrades to the country. The sabotage of these reforms is the main cause of the steep rates rises we've seen since the current government took office. Councils simply have no other option, except to let the sewage flow in the streets, and let our tap water become increasingly undrinkable.
You mention a relationship between immigration of skilled workers and a lack of people already living here being trained in those skills. I agree that these are connected, but I think you have the causal relationship backwards. We are bringing in skilled migrants because of the lack of skilled kiwis available to do the jobs they're filling. This lack of skilled workers has two main drivers.
Firstly, there's steadily rising student costs since "user pays" tertiary education was introduced, inadequate income support for students, and an increasingly punitive student loan scheme. This combo increasingly discourages young people from entering tertiary study, unless they can get a full scholarship, or have parents wealthy enough and willing to pay for their tuition. Secondly, those who do complete a qualification face an economy with relatively low and stagnant wages and salaries, and a high and rising cost of living. Most make a pragmatic decision to relocate to countries with higher wages (eg UK or Europe) or lower costs (eg much of Asia and South America), or both (eg Australia).
We cannot and will not fix these problems by putting up even more barriers to skilled migrants settling in Aotearoa. This can only worsen the skills shortages we already face. If we instead address the costs and disincentives of our broken tertiary education system - and this is an example of the need for greater public spending as mentioned above - and take effective steps to reduce the cost of living relative to incomes, as described above, then more kiwis will get trained and apply for skilled jobs here.
If and when that happens, it will reduce the number of unfilled positions available to skilled migrants. Since getting skilled migrant status requires an existing job that cannot be filled by someone already here, the number of immigrants getting that status would naturally and automatically drop.
But changing rates of migration are not, in themselves, a good or a bad thing. There must be a maximum population that can comfortably fit on two mountainous islands and a handful of smaller ones. On the other hand, the UK has a similar land area to Aotearoa and about 10 times our population, as does Japan with about 20 times as many people as we have. A growing population is bound to create some pressure on infrastructure and resources. But as well as needs, migrants also bring labour hours and skills to the country, often including significant entrepreneurial skills. On top of that, they often arrive with significant savings (in many cases required for their residency conditions).
What's made immigration look like a problem is mainly the aforementioned lack of investment in infrastructure, especially affordable housing (including public housing). As well as a lack of infrastructure investment in the regions - particularly in the area of affordable and reliable transport (including public transport) - which has pushed people into the big cities and prevented them making their lives in the less populated parts of the country. If we solve these problems, politicians who have an interest in them not being solved will no longer be able to blame them on immigrants.
You go on to mention a "Tenant Investments Tax Credit". I haven't heard of this, and couldn't find anything online about it. Tell me more!
You also mention the ballooning costs of healthcare and superannuation, and imply this is caused by immigration of older people. You are right that there's been an increase in the number of people over 65 moving here in recent years, but we're talking a couple of thousand people a year. In a country where the number of retirees is approaching 1 million, that's an increase in retiree numbers of about 0.2%. This is not the problem.
Our healthcare problems are mostly a knock-on effect of the defunct DHB funding model. Where elected officials faced a fixed and usually shrinking budget (relative to inflation), and had to choose between unpopular cuts to health services (and losing the next election), or finding creative ways to cut costs.
One of those ways, as with local councils, was deferring maintenance and replacement of infrastructure and equipment. Again, the bill comes due. Many of our hospitals now need rebuilding, much of their equipment is held together with duct tape, and little or no money has been put aside from previous health budgets to cover these costs.
Another way DHBs kept costs down was to outsource some of their functions, like blood testing and MRI scans, to commercial providers. Whose tenders were unsustainably low at first, to make this seem financially sensible. But now that the health system depends on them for key functions, they can charge like a wounded bull, and do. Increasing health funding can't solve this - even when it does increase relative to inflation which it often doesn't - because commercial providers can just ramp up their prices to absorb the extra funding.
Both the businesses maintaining health infrastructure and supplying medical equipment, and those providing commercialised health services, face the same inflationary pressures mentioned above (rising costs against static incomes). So even where they're not price gouging, the costs of the deferred and outsourced goods and services we rely on them to provide are still going to go up year on year. The solution to this, again, is public spending to bring as many of these functions as possible back in-house, where they're not subject to commercial pressures and exponentially rising prises.
The superannuation problem has a much simpler and sadder cause; Muldoon's short-sighted cancellation of the Kirk government's universal retirement savings scheme.
Combine this with a stubborn refusal to means-test National Super - for decades the only welfare benefit that is *not* means tested - and an unusually large cohort of Baby Boomers entering retirement, and the result is a massive bill for those still in work (including many less wealthy kiwis over 65). This is a problem that is already at or past its peak, and will partially solve itself as the Boomers die off, and the much smaller Gen X generation hit 65. Then die younger on average than Boomers, because we've lived much less comfortable lives (Particularly those born since the first oil shock in 1973).
That aside, there are only two policies that could meaningfully address the cost of Super.
One is the aforementioned means-testing. All else remaining the same, there's no good reason why a 64 year old can't get a welfare benefit if they're working fulltime or have significant personal wealth, but a 65 year old can. This is especially unfair when certain sectors of the population - notably Māori but also men as a cohort - tend to die 10-20 years younger on average than others. Especially so when those same cohorts - notably Māori - are also less wealthy on average than the rest of the population.
The other policy that could address the cost of Super is to extend the UBI we give the over-65s, to everyone. Grant Robertson produced some carefully referenced figures that showed a UBI for all wouldn't actually cost the public purse much more than the total welfare system already does. Including Super, Jobseeker, Supported Living, ACC income support, Working for Families, Student Allowances, and dozens of other piecemeal benefits. Again, this could be balanced out by higher taxes on higher incomes and hoarded wealth, so that although wealthier people get the UBI like everyone else (making it simple and cheap to administrate), they balance it out at tax time, as well as contributing to making sure other people's UBIs are not inflationary.
Finally, you reiterate your call to limit voting to citizens. I already addressed the problems with the logic of that at length, so I won't rehash the topic here. In your reply email you mentioned a submission you wrote that is now in public view. If you'd be willing to send me a link to it, I'll happily read it and give it some thought.
Best of luck with your election campaign.
Ngā mihi nui,
Danyl Strype,
Waikato, Aotearoa
PS Since I've spent a good few hours writing and editing this, once again, I'll publish it on my personal blog at strypey.dreamwidth.org.
Again I see a leaflet from you in my letterbox, this time your pitch as an independent candidate in the 2026 general election. So again, I thought I'd respond.
I pretty much agree with everything on your list of priorities, with the notable exception of "more you, less Keynes". Because increasing public spending is the only way to achieve every else we both want for this country. Balanced out by making sure the wealthy - and especially multinational corporations - pay the same proportion of their income as wage and salary workers. Not by running up government deficits - unless the money supply needs expanding to keep pace with a growing economy - nor by increasing public debt. Although to be clear, NZ public debt is low by OECD standards, and borrowing to pay for infrastructure that will last for generations to come is a sensible way to get everyone who will benefit from it to contribute towards the costs during their working lives.
Turning to the back of your leaflet ...
I'm not sure what you mean by "maximum wages for government". I agree that the gap between the lowest paid and highest paid people in public service has got too big, as it has in most companies. But I don't know how much could realistically be shaved from the top pay brackets for any purpose other than paying public servants. Given that at a time of record unemployment, we really ought to be increasing the number of people employed to do public service work.
Paying a worker for a 40 hour week, at the Living Wage (rounded up to $30), is $1200 a week. We already pay around half of that to most unemployed people in the form of a benefit. So throwing people out of most public service jobs only saves about half of what we pay them. The same logic works in reverse; creating a job for a person on a benefit, doing public service work fulltime at Living Wage, only costs the public purse an extra $600 or so a week. That's a bargain! It's also an investment in growing the real economy, but we'll get to that.
You mention lowering inflation targets from 2% to 0%. You might be surprised to learn that's not actually a change to the status quo. Neoliberal monetary policy always aims for 0% inflation, with 2% as a fallback position. The reason this continues to stall our economy, instead of revitalising it, is that inflation levels are entirely the wrong target. Focusing on limiting the effect, rather than addressing the cause.
Ordinary people's experience of 'high inflation' - escalating consumer prices - is mainly caused by high unemployment. Which starves small businesses of revenue (broke people can't buy as much stuff), reducing their spending at their suppliers. With businesses across the economy experiencing lower incomes while expenses remain steady, they're forced to raise prices just to keep their margins the same. These price rises then raise the costs of doing business - especially for smaller ones - compounding the problem, and driving many to the wall. Further increasing unemployment, rinse, repeat. If the Reserve Bank was tasked with reducing unemployment, rather than obsessing over inflation measures, it might actually be effective in keeping price inflation in check.
The other thing that drives inflation is excessive profiteering by monopolists (eg the supermarket duopoly), especially when the owners of the companies with monopoly control can take their excessive profits out of the country. Strengthening the Commerce Commission to break up monopolies - whether owned by offshore or onshore interests - is one important way to reduce this drag on the economy. Instead of most of our disposable income disappearing straight into corporate coffers the first time it's spent, more of it would be freed up to cycle through a number of local businesses, enabling more transactions. Growing the real economy by getting us the goods and services we need, rather than growing only a mostly-illusory FIRE+IP economy (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Intellectual Property).
Another part of the solution is carefully targeted taxes on capital. For example, as mentioned further down in your leaflet, closing the loopholes that allow highly profitable companies like Apple to pay no tax on the revenue they earn here. Especially when those taxes balance out the aforementioned public spending. Which feeds more money back into the main street economy via employing more public servants, raising benefits to livable levels (esp. disability benefits), and properly funding public services so they're not sapping money out of the economy in invisible and disproportionate taxes (like "user pays" fees).
Your comments on council spending suggest a number of misunderstandings about the responsibilities of local government and the causes of their financial strife. For a start, many of the "nice to haves" you refer to can be shown to reduce the need for greater public spending in other areas. Even if these were as disposable as they're often perceived, they are not a large proportion of councils' rising costs. There are two main drivers of council costs, which I'll briefly describe.
Firstly, successive governments have devolved many central government functions to their local counterparts. As a way of moving those costs out of their own budgets, without having to accept the political costs of eliminating or commercialising popular public goods. Where councils try in good faith to fulfill these delegated responsibilities, it's increased their costs, usually without corresponding increases in their funding.
Secondly, successive councils have responded to pressure to keep rates unsustainably low by deferring maintenance on key infrastructure - especially for water supply and drainage - and now the bill comes due. The 3 Waters reforms were an attempt to move at least some of these costs off councils' balance sheets, and use central government's cheaper access to credit to reduce the overall cost of these infrastructure upgrades to the country. The sabotage of these reforms is the main cause of the steep rates rises we've seen since the current government took office. Councils simply have no other option, except to let the sewage flow in the streets, and let our tap water become increasingly undrinkable.
You mention a relationship between immigration of skilled workers and a lack of people already living here being trained in those skills. I agree that these are connected, but I think you have the causal relationship backwards. We are bringing in skilled migrants because of the lack of skilled kiwis available to do the jobs they're filling. This lack of skilled workers has two main drivers.
Firstly, there's steadily rising student costs since "user pays" tertiary education was introduced, inadequate income support for students, and an increasingly punitive student loan scheme. This combo increasingly discourages young people from entering tertiary study, unless they can get a full scholarship, or have parents wealthy enough and willing to pay for their tuition. Secondly, those who do complete a qualification face an economy with relatively low and stagnant wages and salaries, and a high and rising cost of living. Most make a pragmatic decision to relocate to countries with higher wages (eg UK or Europe) or lower costs (eg much of Asia and South America), or both (eg Australia).
We cannot and will not fix these problems by putting up even more barriers to skilled migrants settling in Aotearoa. This can only worsen the skills shortages we already face. If we instead address the costs and disincentives of our broken tertiary education system - and this is an example of the need for greater public spending as mentioned above - and take effective steps to reduce the cost of living relative to incomes, as described above, then more kiwis will get trained and apply for skilled jobs here.
If and when that happens, it will reduce the number of unfilled positions available to skilled migrants. Since getting skilled migrant status requires an existing job that cannot be filled by someone already here, the number of immigrants getting that status would naturally and automatically drop.
But changing rates of migration are not, in themselves, a good or a bad thing. There must be a maximum population that can comfortably fit on two mountainous islands and a handful of smaller ones. On the other hand, the UK has a similar land area to Aotearoa and about 10 times our population, as does Japan with about 20 times as many people as we have. A growing population is bound to create some pressure on infrastructure and resources. But as well as needs, migrants also bring labour hours and skills to the country, often including significant entrepreneurial skills. On top of that, they often arrive with significant savings (in many cases required for their residency conditions).
What's made immigration look like a problem is mainly the aforementioned lack of investment in infrastructure, especially affordable housing (including public housing). As well as a lack of infrastructure investment in the regions - particularly in the area of affordable and reliable transport (including public transport) - which has pushed people into the big cities and prevented them making their lives in the less populated parts of the country. If we solve these problems, politicians who have an interest in them not being solved will no longer be able to blame them on immigrants.
You go on to mention a "Tenant Investments Tax Credit". I haven't heard of this, and couldn't find anything online about it. Tell me more!
You also mention the ballooning costs of healthcare and superannuation, and imply this is caused by immigration of older people. You are right that there's been an increase in the number of people over 65 moving here in recent years, but we're talking a couple of thousand people a year. In a country where the number of retirees is approaching 1 million, that's an increase in retiree numbers of about 0.2%. This is not the problem.
Our healthcare problems are mostly a knock-on effect of the defunct DHB funding model. Where elected officials faced a fixed and usually shrinking budget (relative to inflation), and had to choose between unpopular cuts to health services (and losing the next election), or finding creative ways to cut costs.
One of those ways, as with local councils, was deferring maintenance and replacement of infrastructure and equipment. Again, the bill comes due. Many of our hospitals now need rebuilding, much of their equipment is held together with duct tape, and little or no money has been put aside from previous health budgets to cover these costs.
Another way DHBs kept costs down was to outsource some of their functions, like blood testing and MRI scans, to commercial providers. Whose tenders were unsustainably low at first, to make this seem financially sensible. But now that the health system depends on them for key functions, they can charge like a wounded bull, and do. Increasing health funding can't solve this - even when it does increase relative to inflation which it often doesn't - because commercial providers can just ramp up their prices to absorb the extra funding.
Both the businesses maintaining health infrastructure and supplying medical equipment, and those providing commercialised health services, face the same inflationary pressures mentioned above (rising costs against static incomes). So even where they're not price gouging, the costs of the deferred and outsourced goods and services we rely on them to provide are still going to go up year on year. The solution to this, again, is public spending to bring as many of these functions as possible back in-house, where they're not subject to commercial pressures and exponentially rising prises.
The superannuation problem has a much simpler and sadder cause; Muldoon's short-sighted cancellation of the Kirk government's universal retirement savings scheme.
Combine this with a stubborn refusal to means-test National Super - for decades the only welfare benefit that is *not* means tested - and an unusually large cohort of Baby Boomers entering retirement, and the result is a massive bill for those still in work (including many less wealthy kiwis over 65). This is a problem that is already at or past its peak, and will partially solve itself as the Boomers die off, and the much smaller Gen X generation hit 65. Then die younger on average than Boomers, because we've lived much less comfortable lives (Particularly those born since the first oil shock in 1973).
That aside, there are only two policies that could meaningfully address the cost of Super.
One is the aforementioned means-testing. All else remaining the same, there's no good reason why a 64 year old can't get a welfare benefit if they're working fulltime or have significant personal wealth, but a 65 year old can. This is especially unfair when certain sectors of the population - notably Māori but also men as a cohort - tend to die 10-20 years younger on average than others. Especially so when those same cohorts - notably Māori - are also less wealthy on average than the rest of the population.
The other policy that could address the cost of Super is to extend the UBI we give the over-65s, to everyone. Grant Robertson produced some carefully referenced figures that showed a UBI for all wouldn't actually cost the public purse much more than the total welfare system already does. Including Super, Jobseeker, Supported Living, ACC income support, Working for Families, Student Allowances, and dozens of other piecemeal benefits. Again, this could be balanced out by higher taxes on higher incomes and hoarded wealth, so that although wealthier people get the UBI like everyone else (making it simple and cheap to administrate), they balance it out at tax time, as well as contributing to making sure other people's UBIs are not inflationary.
Finally, you reiterate your call to limit voting to citizens. I already addressed the problems with the logic of that at length, so I won't rehash the topic here. In your reply email you mentioned a submission you wrote that is now in public view. If you'd be willing to send me a link to it, I'll happily read it and give it some thought.
Best of luck with your election campaign.
Ngā mihi nui,
Danyl Strype,
Waikato, Aotearoa
PS Since I've spent a good few hours writing and editing this, once again, I'll publish it on my personal blog at strypey.dreamwidth.org.



