Opportunities for the NZ Greens
Oct. 18th, 2026 05:22 pmPolitical Communication in the Age of Murderbots
This piece isn't really about political parties as such. It's about something I find far more intriguing, the way a bunch of things affect political communication and the ways we do democracy in the digital age; the nature of misinformation and disinformation, the cocaine-snorting confirmation bias of social media platforms, and the devolution of electoral politics into a bunch of 'reality TV' shows, where it's all about voting the Others off the island before they can do it to you.
The is a blog post in three parts (four sir!) ... errr ... four parts;
1) Deny; Attack; Reverse Victim and Offender: Which of the socially progressive environmental parties in Aotearoa has really got it in for who?
2) Lost in the Hall of Mirrors: Surrounded by mirrors, fighting all the backwards people.
3) Choices, Choices: This is the bit that's actually about NZ political parties and what I think of them.
4) Keeping our Powder Dry: Mutually-assured destruction or win-win games?
I don't write about the ins and out of party politics that much, because frankly it's not that interesting. But when I do, I tend to deep dive, so once again this gets loooong. Bail out now, or strap in ...
Deny; Attack; Reverse Victim and Offender
DARVO stands for Deny; Attack; Reverse Victim and Offender. It was coined to describe the behaviour that people who persistently abuse others use, when they're trying to avoid being held accountable for their bullshit. But we also see it, for example, when the crypto-fascist white nationalists in control of the US federal government accuse their opponents of being authoritarians, or even fascists (some of them are, mind you. There's no honour among thieves, nor among fascists).
I came across a classic example of political-economic DARVO while browsing the fediverse today.
"I start to pay increasing attention to Opportunity content and activity, and am bowled over by the force, velocity and intensity of affiliate accounts.
It’s not only the volume, it’s the scale of attack if you oppose their party lines or dare to critique them that draws my attention.
It surpasses anything I have seen online before."
Mountain Tui, 2026, NZ Greens partisan, moderator of the (supposedly) nonpartisan r/NZPolitics discussion board.
I'm not the font of all political knowledge and I can't be everywhere and read everything. But from what I've seen, it's Greens partisans who have been running an unprincipled attack campaign against the Opportunities party, not vice versa.
In fact, a faction of Green supporters seem determined to keep Oppportunities from cresting the 5% threshold required to get MPs, despite the fact they have almost the same policy manifesto. Just fronted by different people, wrapped in different political packaging, and using a different electoral strategy. One I happen to think is much smarter, and that the Greens themselves used until they buddied up to Labour in 2017.
So that's some seriously Mirror World stuff in that Mountain Tui quote. The narcissism of small differences at work, perhaps?
Lost in the Hall of Mirrors
I've even seen knives stuck in Opportunities' kidneys by writers I've always had tremendous respect for. Writers who in most cases can be relied upon to be abnormally scrupulous about sticking to the facts, however inconvenient that might be. Scoop editor Gordon Campbell, former NZ Herald writer and now NZ Listener columnist Simon Wilson, and the pseudonymous author of the long-running No Right Turn blog, have all left their objectivity at the door to join this Greens-or-bust attack campaign. I find all this deeply disappointing, even though in these cases I think it's the result of confirmation bias rather than intellectual dishonesty.
But this is how desperate some people are to believe that changing who sits in the 120(+) mini-thrones in Parliament House will magically fix everything that's going wrong in this country. Despite decades of evidence to the contrary in capitalist 'liberal democracies' across the world.
Coming back to Mountain Tui's attack blog, any heap of disinformation always contains a few tiny bullets of truth, which disinfo-mongers use to lay down covering fire, if anyone ever calls them on their bullshit. But the rest of the time those those tiny bullets are willfully or naively exaggerated, misrepresented, or stripped of context, if not all three. Here's a classic example;
"At this point of the election, National are projected to secure more seats than Labour, which would equate to Opportunity taking its 40% of left leaning votes to Christopher Luxon, Winston Peters and David Seymour."
Mountain Tui, 2026,
This is scaremongering, plain and simple. I'm guessing Mountain Tui would defend the claim with a link to Opportunities saying they'd talk to the party with the largest share of the vote first. Just talk to them before anyone else. But they haven't committed to backing a government led by that party, because they are nothing if not consistent with their core electoral strategy; maintaining that they could work with any coalition of parties, and basing any post-election choices on which bloc they can extract the best policy concessions from.
Side note: The only pre-assembled blocs are NatACT and LabGreen. Despite what Hipkins and Winston First have said, if they don't end up talking post-election, I'll eat my hat (and I really like my hat).
Another common technique of disinfo is to boobytrap one false claim by hiding a more subtle one inside it. So critics get distracted by the overt claim, and the subtle one gets to live rent-free in everyone's subconscious.
In this case, the boobytrapped claim is that the Opportunities strategy is to trick lefties into voting for another term of NatACT First. While the implied claim is that because 40% of the people saying they'll vote for Opportunities have voted for Labour, Greens or Te Pāti Māori in the past, their votes are therefore "left votes". I call bullshit on that. There's no such thing as "left votes", just votes, and if anyone really believes that voting Labour in any election since 1984 makes someone a lefty, I've got a very working class harbour bridge to sell them ...
Mountain Tui also repeats another unfact that's been doing the rounds; that Opportunities have abandoned their UBI and Land Tax policies, just because they didn't put them in their post-negotiation bottom lines for this election. This is either deeply dishonest, or profoundly naive about the horsetrading electoral politics always involves in a multi-party political system.
I've already debunked this claim about what bottom lines mean, in a series of fediverse posts responding to the No Right Turn blog piece about it. So I won't rehash it here. Suffice to say, it's like saying if the Greens don't announce a bottom line of ending all fossil fuel use in Aotearoa during the next Parliamentary term, they've given up caring about climate change or renewable energy.

Smoking Gums and Fowl Play
That this claim appears in more than one Greens-aligned blog is a natural consequence of the ideological circle-jerk that's been holding the party back since around the time they hitched their wagon to Labour's. If I was following Mountain Tui's playbook, I might claim this as proof of talking points being issued to fellow travellers by some sort of Greens Politburo. But I wouldn't say that sort of thing without some pretty damn convincing evidence to back it up.
Mountain Tui, on the other hand, seems to have no qualms about claiming that Opportunities are using a bot farm, because lots of accounts are showing up on Reddit to show support for them. But these observations are explained just as well by huge numbers of extremely-online kiwis feeling like they've found a political home. Then being disgusted by the attack campaign these Greens partisans are running (and presumably NatACT First and their corporate backers too), and turning up en masse to defend their new political tribe, or just the truth. So unless Mountain Tui has smoking gun evidence that any of these pro-Opportunities accounts are bots, Occam's Razor slices this claim to ribbons.
As for Opportunities office holders misrepresenting themselves as casual supporters online, if that's a thing, I agree it's scummy. But it's definitely a duck called a chicken 'fowl', given the above. The "receipts" Mountain Tui claims they have for it; an anecdote about an acquaintance, and posting a screenshot of a (supposedly) deleted social media post - which anyone could whack out in a few minutes by prompting an image auto-generator - is not exactly Nicky Hager-quality evidence. Given the economy with the truth pointed out above, I think we can be forgiven for being sceptical.
I didn't see any other signs of evidence for Mountain Tui's claims in their attack piece, and if such evidence exists, it would be very weird not to include it. Which suggests that they're engaging in another dirty politics tactic I've seen used against anyone challenging facile dunks on Opportunities; making shit up on the spot to suit their argument.
I took up the cudgels with one Greens partisan on the fediverse, who lobbed another boobytrapped claim, implying that I want NatACT First to stay in government. Anyone who actually knows me would be wet themselves with laughter at the very thought. Not caring much about replacing horseshit with chickenshit is not exactly an endorsement for horseshit.
When I challenged this muppet with a variation on the old 'tell me, when did you stop beating your wife?' he lashed out, threatening to reveal dodgy history involving minors (nonexistent, of course). This is how mercenary some of these people are (or maybe just dopey), and Rod and Jeanette would be turning in their graves if they knew such unprincipled people were representing the Greens of Aotearoa in a global public forum.
Choices, Choices
So on the one hand, we've got the NatACTs enabled by Winston First. A profoundly antidemocratic and ecocidal corporatist regime, whose grand plan for the country is to increase the number of homeless (and probably suicides) by kicking more people off welfare during an unemployment crisis they chose to create, by massively cutting public spending. I agree with the Greens that the policies and plans those parties have for the next Parliamentary term are a clear and present danger to the long term wellbeing of our country.
On the other hand you've got the crumbling remains of the Labour party, led by the most milquetoast enabler of corporatists since Geoffrey Palmer, whose inspiring vision is to add a spoonful of sugar to NatACT First's barrel of vomit. A spoonful of soggy weetbix Capital Gains Tax with more exceptions than English grammar will help the vomit go down. Isn't that's what Mary Poppins sang so sweetly in that movie?
After the 2023 election I went to a Labour public meeting where Chris Hipkins emitted hot air for a while. At question time, I pointed out that every time we're polled on it, an overwhelming majority of kiwis say we want taxes raised on wealth, until the mega-rich pay the same proportion of tax on their total income as the rest of us. Then I asked him how we convince Labour to do that. Well I have my answer; replace Hipkins with a leader. Ideally a leftist, but anyone with principles and a spine will do. If they need to lose another election before they get the point, that's on them.
Then we've got a Green party determined to put these carpetbaggers in power by any means necessary. Including a campaign of lies, character assassination, and social media vitriol, that would make Edward L. Bernays proud, targeting anyone who so much as questions the wisdom. Not exactly inspiring.
Hipkins's Labour and the attack Greens are backed up by a Te Pāti Māori orchestrated by the mirror image of Shame Jones; an ex-Labour, centre-right, Rasputin-type operator, who in this case claims a road to Damascus conversation to the radical left. At least for as long as it helps him get a Parliamentary salary for more of his acolytes. But woe betide anyone who defends flaxroots, kaupapa-Māori, consensus process against his command and control empire, as the Hikoi-building Kapa-Kingi whānau found out the hard way.
Is it any wonder that a lot of disillusioned kiwis are channeling their inner Mercutio and scoffing "A plague o' both your houses!"? Which is why we've seen combined polling for the NatLabs close to dropping below 50% of the total vote, for the first time since they became the dominant parties. More and more people are looking for third options.
There's always a protest vote for the Cannabis party, Free Palestine, Animal Justice, etc. Or the old 'no confidence' option popular with anarchists; register to vote but refuse to cast a vote for anyone. The only good thing about the "compulsory voting" various political fossils are so keen on is that people could vote 'No Confidence' formally. If someone created a new satirical party like McGillicuddy Serious, then I suspect that like Count Binface they'd probably be at risk of getting elected.
But with very little to lose in this election, and an opportunity to get a new player into Parliament (see what I did there?), it's hardly surprising that Opportunities are polling above 5% in 8 out of the last 10 political polls (the exceptions being 4.8% and 4.5%, well within the margin of error). I'll be very surprised if they don't get in, even if they have to wait for the specials to get over the line, as did the Greens in 1996.
Keeping our Powder Dry
There's an old hippy saying (origin unknown) that 'where attention goes, energy flows'. So you know all that attention Greens are directing to Opportunities by trying to strangle them in the cradle? There's a good chances it's only helping them rise. If Greens want to lift their own party's polling instead, maybe they'd be put their attention on talking up Greens policy, and explaining how they'll get Labour to action some of it? Just a thought. Also, maybe they could listen to the leaders they elected?
“No one is ever going to be able to empathise with your worldview if they feel that they are under attack,” she said. “No one is ever going to be able to accept new information if they feel they are losing. If we want to win, we’ve got to win together.”
Chloe Swarbrick, Greens campaign launch, AUT South Auckland, 2026
And yes, I can hear the smart alecs in the cheap seats. Pointing out that by writing this, and dunking on Greens in the fediverse when they spread anti-Opportunities talking points, I'm directing energy to the Greens and helping their polling. But in my case, that's not an anti-goal ;)


